Derry City 2-4 Waterford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 3 Jul 2026

Derry City
2-4 HT 0-1
Waterford FC
📅03/07/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Ireland - Premier League – 2026

Derry City vs Waterford FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.49
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.82
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
15.6
X/1
20%
4.02
X/2
6%
12.1
X/X
9%
6.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.1
2/2
8%
9.7
2/X
6%
17.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
63%
+0.5pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.6pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.2pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derry City v Waterford FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +1%
1.64/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.75
+17% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
340 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 69%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
25.1 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Derry City vs Waterford FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Waterford FC
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.61 xG 1.48
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
334 Passes 165
75% Pass Accuracy 60%
22 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.05.2026 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-2 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
27.02.2026 Derry City Derry City 4-2 HT 0-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
17.10.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 1-2 HT 1-2 Derry City Derry City İRL
04.07.2025 Derry City Derry City 7-2 HT 4-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
25.04.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
28.02.2025 Derry City Derry City 1-2 HT 0-2 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL

Derry City 2-4 Waterford FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
2-4
AWAY Waterford FC
1.54 xG 3.29
65% Ball Possession 35%
24 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
426 Passes 111
37 Box Touches 25
30 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derry City vs Waterford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Waterford FC saw off Derry City 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Derry City carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Derry City had 65% of the ball to Waterford FC's 35%, shots finished 24-14, expected goals 1.54 to 3.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Derry City and 1.83 for Waterford FC.

What was the final score of Derry City vs Waterford FC?

Derry City 2-4 Waterford FC in the Ireland - Premier League on 03/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs Waterford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Derry City 63%, draw 19%, Waterford FC 18%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Derry City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derry City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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