Derry City 1-2 Waterford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 28 Feb 2025

📅28/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.74
Over 2.5
55%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.13
No
47%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.8
6+ Goals
11%
17.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.8 — our 26% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.87
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.8
X/1
16%
3.7
X/2
7%
12.45
X/X
13%
5.14
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
11%
11.4
2/X
7%
20.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-11.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+9.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
54%
-8.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
46%
+8.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
43%
+10.5pp
47%
BTTS No
57%
-10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 18%
-4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +0%
1.32/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.48
+5% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
412 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 199 · 65%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
23.6 Crosses 14.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Waterford FC
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.65 xG 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
308 Passes 244
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
23.08.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
03.06.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 3-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
26.04.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
08.03.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 2-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
02.11.2021 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-2 HT 2-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
02.07.2021 Derry City Derry City 2-0 HT 1-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
1-2
AWAY Waterford FC
3.26 xG 1.04
71% Ball Possession 29%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
390 Passes 118
78% Pass Accuracy 55%
27 Box Touches 11
41 Crosses 3
6 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Derry City vs Waterford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Waterford FC edged past Derry City 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Derry City at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Derry City had 71% of the ball to Waterford FC's 29%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 3.26 to 1.04 — on chances, Derry City could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Derry City and 0.33 for Waterford FC.

What was the final score of Derry City vs Waterford FC?

Derry City 1-2 Waterford FC in the Ireland - Premier League on 28/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs Waterford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Derry City 51%, draw 25%, Waterford FC 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Derry City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derry City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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