Waterford FC 2-2 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 15 May 2026

📅15/05/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
52%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 29% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.74
1/2
7%
22.65
1/X
7%
15.05
X/1
5%
8.64
X/2
15%
4.31
X/X
11%
5.05
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
30%
2.32
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
23%
+0.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
52%
Away Win
53%
-0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 57%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
1.11/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/0.93
-1% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
228 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 73%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
19.7 Crosses 21.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Waterford FC
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Derry City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.25 xG 1.60
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
182 Passes 336
62% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 4
27.02.2026 Derry City Derry City 4-2 HT 0-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
17.10.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 1-2 HT 1-2 Derry City Derry City İRL
04.07.2025 Derry City Derry City 7-2 HT 4-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
25.04.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
28.02.2025 Derry City Derry City 1-2 HT 0-2 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
23.08.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Waterford FC
2-2
AWAY Derry City
2.15 xG 0.49
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
138 Passes 305
58% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Waterford FC vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Waterford FC and Derry City couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Derry City at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Waterford FC had 37% of the ball to Derry City's 63%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.15 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Waterford FC and 2.67 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Waterford FC vs Derry City?

Waterford FC 2-2 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 15/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Waterford FC vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Waterford FC 23%, draw 24%, Derry City 52%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Derry City), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derry City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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