Derry City 4-2 Waterford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 27 Feb 2026

📅27/02/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.49
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.63
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.84
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
15.9
X/1
22%
3.95
X/2
6%
11.9
X/X
9%
5.93
2/1 EV+ ✓
8%
21.8
2/2
7%
9.79
2/X
6%
18.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
63%
+0.3pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.2pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.8pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +19%
1.66/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.73
+17% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
358 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 70%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
24.1 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Waterford FC
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.36 xG 0.99
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
341 Passes 207
77% Pass Accuracy 66%
20 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
17.10.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 1-2 HT 1-2 Derry City Derry City İRL
04.07.2025 Derry City Derry City 7-2 HT 4-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
25.04.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
28.02.2025 Derry City Derry City 1-2 HT 0-2 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
23.08.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
03.06.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 3-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
4-2
AWAY Waterford FC
2.61 xG 2.19
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 8
13 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
296 Passes 109
72% Pass Accuracy 50%
38 Box Touches 16
35 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derry City vs Waterford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City got the better of Waterford FC 4-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Derry City had 66% of the ball to Waterford FC's 34%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 2.61 to 2.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Derry City and 1.17 for Waterford FC.

What was the final score of Derry City vs Waterford FC?

Derry City 4-2 Waterford FC in the Ireland - Premier League on 27/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs Waterford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Derry City 63%, draw 19%, Waterford FC 18%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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