Derry City 7-2 Waterford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 4 Jul 2025

📅04/07/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.8
Over 2.5
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.82
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.81
6+ Goals
12%
17.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.81 — our 26% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.99
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
17.05
X/1
13%
3.85
X/2
8%
11.55
X/X
11%
5.11
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
10%
10.3
2/X
7%
19.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.7pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.4pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 19%
-5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +12%
1.59/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.73
+7% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 70%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
23.2 Crosses 14.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Waterford FC
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.84 xG 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
324 Passes 216
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
28.02.2025 Derry City Derry City 1-2 HT 0-2 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
23.08.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
03.06.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 3-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
26.04.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
08.03.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 2-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
7-2
AWAY Waterford FC
1.25 xG 0.84
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
476 Passes 191
85% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derry City vs Waterford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City ran out comfortable winners over Waterford FC 7-2. Half-time: 4-0. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 7-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Derry City had 67% of the ball to Waterford FC's 33%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.25 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Derry City and 0.67 for Waterford FC.

What was the final score of Derry City vs Waterford FC?

Derry City 7-2 Waterford FC in the Ireland - Premier League on 04/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs Waterford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Derry City 52%, draw 24%, Waterford FC 24%. The final score 7-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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