Waterford FC 1-2 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 17 Oct 2025

📅17/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
48%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.91
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.07
1/2
10%
26.0
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
9%
6.81
X/2
13%
4.86
X/X
11%
4.5
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
25%
3.02
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-2.4pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
48%
Away Win
43%
+4.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 48%
+8% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.17/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.89
+10% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
263 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 69%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
22.5 Crosses 18.4
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Waterford FC
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Derry City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.92 xG 1.65
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
203 Passes 352
66% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.07.2025 Derry City Derry City 7-2 HT 4-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
25.04.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
28.02.2025 Derry City Derry City 1-2 HT 0-2 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
23.08.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
03.06.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 3-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
26.04.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Waterford FC
1-2
AWAY Derry City
1.40 xG 0.89
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
236 Passes 212
65% Pass Accuracy 68%
35 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Waterford FC vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City edged past Waterford FC 2-1 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Waterford FC had 53% of the ball to Derry City's 47%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.40 to 0.89 — on chances, Waterford FC could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Waterford FC and 2.50 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Waterford FC vs Derry City?

Waterford FC 1-2 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Waterford FC vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Waterford FC 27%, draw 25%, Derry City 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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