Erzurumspor FK 4-2 Keçiörengücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 4 Mar 2026

📅04/03/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
47%
+1.7pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.9pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 31%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
0.93/2.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.00
-49% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +76%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Keçiörengücü
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.79 xG 0.85
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
306 Passes 275
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2026 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 1-2 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
24.09.2025 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-1 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
10.03.2025 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 1-3 HT 0-2 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
27.10.2024 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 4-0 HT 2-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
10.03.2024 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 0-2 HT 0-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
21.10.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
4-2
AWAY Keçiörengücü
77% Ball Possession 23%
21 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs Keçiörengücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK beat Keçiörengücü 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Erzurumspor FK as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 77% of the ball to Keçiörengücü's 23%, shots finished 21-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzurumspor FK had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 0.67 for Keçiörengücü.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Keçiörengücü?

Erzurumspor FK 4-2 Keçiörengücü in the Turkey - Cup on 04/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Keçiörengücü?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 49%, draw 21%, Keçiörengücü 30%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzurumspor FK), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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