Inter Miami 4-1 New York Red Bulls — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.56
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.73
6+ Goals
13%
7.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.01
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
16%
4.37
X/2
8%
10.8
X/X
11%
6.36
2/1
6%
20.2
2/2 EV+ ✗
15%
7.96
2/X
5%
16.05
Value flag · 2/2 at 7.96 — our 15% vs market 9.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
59%
-11.6pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.7pp
29%
Away Win
19%
+9.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.1pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inter Miami EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 22%
-6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +19%
1.93/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.50
+9% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
378 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
12.8 Crosses 15.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inter Miami
3W-0D-3L
AWAY New York Red Bulls
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.69 xG 1.52
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
430 Passes 308
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Inter Miami Inter Miami 6-2 HT 0-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
23.03.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 4-0 HT 1-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
27.08.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-2 HT 0-1 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
01.06.2023 Inter Miami Inter Miami 0-1 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
28.08.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-1 HT 1-1 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
23.05.2022 Inter Miami Inter Miami 2-0 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Inter Miami
4-1
AWAY New York Red Bulls
2.20 xG 0.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
459 Passes 396
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter Miami swept aside New York Red Bulls 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Inter Miami as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Inter Miami had 53% of the ball to New York Red Bulls's 47%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.20 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Inter Miami and 1.67 for New York Red Bulls.

What was the final score of Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls?

Inter Miami 4-1 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Major League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inter Miami win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Inter Miami 48%, draw 24%, New York Red Bulls 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter Miami), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Inter Miami) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
4 May 2025
02:30 Columbus Crew vs Charlotte Analysis →
02:30 DC United vs Colorado Rapids Analysis →
02:30 CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union Analysis →
03:30 Austin vs Minnesota United Analysis →
03:30 Chicago Fire vs Orlando City Analysis →
04:15 San Diego vs FC Dallas Analysis →