VPS 4-0 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 4 Jul 2026

📅04/07/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.3
Draw
18%
4.95
Away
14%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.45
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.76
6+ Goals
14%
7.67
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.5
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
20.7
X/1
24%
3.74
X/2
5%
18.15
X/X
6%
7.72
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
21.4
2/2
4%
15.6
2/X
7%
23.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.4 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
72%
-4.4pp
18%
Draw
17%
+1.3pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+3.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 14%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.96/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.96
-8% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +6%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
492 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 73%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
21.9 Crosses 12.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
3W-2D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.67 xG 0.91
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
344 Passes 297
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.05.2026 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-1 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
21.09.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-1 HT 1-1 VPS VPS FİN
01.08.2025 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
14.06.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-5 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
28.07.2024 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
12.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
4-0
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.40 xG 0.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
426 Passes 349
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 7
12 Crosses 15
FAQ VPS vs IFK Mariehamn
Match summary & frequently asked questions

VPS ran out comfortable winners over IFK Mariehamn 4-0 in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 4 Jul 2026. Half-time: 2-0.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 56% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, VPS had 52% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 48%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 2.40 to 0.47.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS have the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for VPS and 0.83 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of VPS vs IFK Mariehamn?

VPS 4-0 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 04/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split VPS 68%, draw 18%, IFK Mariehamn 14%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VPS), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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