Zalgiris Vilnius 1-2 Kauno Zalgiris — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 4 Aug 2025

📅04/08/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
16%
X/X
7%
2/1
12%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 31%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
0.21/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/0.54
-83% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +104%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
306 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2025 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 3-0 HT 2-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITA
06.04.2025 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 0-0 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
22.09.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 5-0 HT 4-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
05.07.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITA
19.05.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
31.03.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 0-1 HT 0-1 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
1-2
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Zalgiris
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kauno Zalgiris edged past Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Zalgiris Vilnius at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 55% of the ball to Kauno Zalgiris's 45%, shots finished 17-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zalgiris Vilnius had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Zalgiris Vilnius and 0.67 for Kauno Zalgiris.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Zalgiris Vilnius 1-2 Kauno Zalgiris in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 04/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 45%, draw 24%, Kauno Zalgiris 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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