Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 CSKA Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 4 Aug 2026

📅04/08/2026 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.53
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.13
6+ Goals
10%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 28% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
+0.3pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.2pp
32%
Away Win
35%
-3.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.5pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 39%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
2.11/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/0.53
+39% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +142%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2W-2D-2L
AWAY CSKA Moskova
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.23 xG 1.32
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
310 Passes 412
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.05.2026 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 3-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
18.10.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-0 HT 2-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
01.10.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
30.07.2025 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 2-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
19.05.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-2 HT 2-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
18.08.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 0-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1-1
AWAY CSKA Moskova
12 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow and CSKA Moskova shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, shots finished 12-22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.17 for CSKA Moskova.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moskova?

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 CSKA Moskova in the Russia - Cup on 04/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 38%, draw 30%, CSKA Moskova 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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