Tallinna Kalev 1-3 Trans Narva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.4
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
62%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
Over 2.5
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
20%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
15%
+4.3pp
18%
Draw
19%
-0.5pp
62%
Away Win
66%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.6pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 70%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.07/2.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.27/1.24
+2% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -30%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
280 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tallinna Kalev
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Trans Narva
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
47% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.08.2025 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-0 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
19.05.2025 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 2-5 HT 0-5 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
08.04.2025 Trans Narva Trans Narva 1-0 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
23.10.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-1 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
17.08.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-2 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
12.05.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tallinna Kalev
1-3
AWAY Trans Narva
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tallinna Kalev vs Trans Narva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trans Narva got the better of Tallinna Kalev 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Trans Narva as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Tallinna Kalev had 51% of the ball to Trans Narva's 49%, shots finished 10-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trans Narva led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 1.83 for Trans Narva.

What was the final score of Tallinna Kalev vs Trans Narva?

Tallinna Kalev 1-3 Trans Narva in the Estonia - Premium League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tallinna Kalev vs Trans Narva?

Before kick-off our model rated an Trans Narva win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Tallinna Kalev 20%, draw 18%, Trans Narva 62%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trans Narva), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Trans Narva) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EST1 More Estonia - Premium League
4 Oct 2025
14:30 FC Kuressaare vs Paide Linnameeskond Analysis →
19:00 Harju Jalgpallikool vs FC Flora Tallinn Analysis →