Dinamo Moscow 3-5 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
21%
3.08
6+ Goals
9%
9.51
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 29% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.53
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
15%
4.76
X/2
11%
7.97
X/X
11%
5.44
2/1
10%
21.8
2/2
10%
5.6
2/X
7%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.8pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.63/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.56
+3% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 72%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
19.9 Crosses 16.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.56 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
321 Passes 327
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.03.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
28.11.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
05.11.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
27.07.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 3-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
03.03.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
21.10.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
3-5
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
4.30 xG 3.19
55% Ball Possession 45%
24 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 4
305 Passes 245
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
56 Box Touches 36
29 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow saw off Dinamo Moscow 5-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Dinamo Moscow at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 55% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 45%, shots finished 24-18, expected goals 4.30 to 3.19 — the balance of chances actually favoured Dinamo Moscow.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.00 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Dinamo Moscow 3-5 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 48%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Moscow 28%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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