Krasnodar 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.82
No
43%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
12.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.1
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
18%
4.18
X/2
5%
10.2
X/X
10%
5.28
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.1
2/2
8%
8.25
2/X
5%
16.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 11% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
57%
+1.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
19%
Away Win
19%
-0.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.6pp
43%
BTTS No
49%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 22%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.88/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.55
+6% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
16.4 Crosses 12.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.59 xG 1.14
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
437 Passes 156
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2025 Krasnodar Krasnodar 3-1 HT 1-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
11.03.2025 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUSK
02.10.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-0 HT 2-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
15.08.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
21.07.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
04.05.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
2-0
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
1.90 xG 2.04
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
274 Passes 234
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs FC Akhmat Grozny
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar got the better of FC Akhmat Grozny 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Krasnodar had 52% of the ball to FC Akhmat Grozny's 48%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.90 to 2.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Akhmat Grozny led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Krasnodar and 1.33 for FC Akhmat Grozny.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Krasnodar 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny in the Russia - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 59%, draw 23%, FC Akhmat Grozny 19%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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