Curzon Ashton 1-0 Warrington Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No OUR CALL
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.14
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
8%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 27% vs market 25.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
67%
-8.6pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.8pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+4.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.1pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Curzon Ashton EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Warrington Town EU Bookmakers 16%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.59/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.50
-13% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +27%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
457 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Curzon Ashton
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Warrington Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.12.2024 Warrington Town Warrington Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton İCON
17.02.2024 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton 0-3 HT 0-2 Warrington Town Warrington Town İCON
16.09.2023 Warrington Town Warrington Town 2-3 HT 2-2 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton FAK
28.08.2023 Warrington Town Warrington Town 1-4 HT 0-2 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Curzon Ashton
1-0
AWAY Warrington Town
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Curzon Ashton vs Warrington Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Curzon Ashton squeezed past Warrington Town 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Curzon Ashton as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Curzon Ashton had 52% of the ball to Warrington Town's 48%, shots finished 15-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Curzon Ashton had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Curzon Ashton and 1.50 for Warrington Town.

What was the final score of Curzon Ashton vs Warrington Town?

Curzon Ashton 1-0 Warrington Town in the England - Conference on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Curzon Ashton vs Warrington Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Curzon Ashton win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Curzon Ashton 58%, draw 24%, Warrington Town 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Curzon Ashton), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Curzon Ashton) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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