New York Red Bulls 4-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 5 Apr 2026

📅05/04/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.9
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.2
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.58
6+ Goals
12%
6.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.55
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
5%
12.35
X/1
12%
5.05
X/2
10%
7.73
X/X
11%
5.99
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
20.15
2/2
13%
4.9
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.15 — our 16% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
48%
+2.0pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.6pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.1pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +14%
1.59/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.69
+11% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
17.4 Crosses 11.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 1.01
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
311 Passes 347
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2025 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
23.02.2025 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
21.07.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-1 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
07.04.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-2 HT 1-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
05.11.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
30.10.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 2-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
4-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.00 xG 2.80
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
430 Passes 382
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
38 Box Touches 35
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York Red Bulls got the better of FC Cincinnati 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had New York Red Bulls as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 52% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 48%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 2.00 to 2.80 — the balance of chances actually favoured FC Cincinnati.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.33 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs FC Cincinnati?

New York Red Bulls 4-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 50%, draw 22%, FC Cincinnati 28%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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