PAOK 2-1 Olympiakos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
3.97
6+ Goals
7%
19.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 35% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.13
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
10%
5.85
X/2
8%
5.57
X/X
16%
4.07
2/1
10%
32.5
2/2
18%
3.81
2/X
5%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
35%
+5.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.5pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 40%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.09/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.90
+6% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 72%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
15.7 Crosses 18.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Olympiakos
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.16 xG 1.41
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
262 Passes 271
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2025 Olympiakos Olympiakos 4-2 HT 2-2 PAOK PAOK YUN
06.04.2025 PAOK PAOK 2-1 HT 2-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
23.02.2025 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-1 HT 2-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
10.11.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-3 HT 0-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
12.05.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-0 HT 1-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
21.04.2024 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-1 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
2-1
AWAY Olympiakos
1.86 xG 0.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
265 Passes 231
69% Pass Accuracy 64%
17 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PAOK vs Olympiakos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK nicked a narrow win over Olympiakos 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PAOK as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PAOK had 51% of the ball to Olympiakos's 49%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.86 to 0.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olympiakos led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for PAOK and 2.00 for Olympiakos.

What was the final score of PAOK vs Olympiakos?

PAOK 2-1 Olympiakos in the Greece - Super League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs Olympiakos?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split PAOK 41%, draw 27%, Olympiakos 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PAOK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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