Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bournemouth v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-1
Aston Villa
İNP
3-0
HT 1-0
Bournemouth
İNP
Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics
Bournemouth and Aston Villa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Bournemouth had 53% of the ball to Aston Villa's 47%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 2.06 to 0.59.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bournemouth and 2.33 for Aston Villa.
What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 38%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bournemouth), Over 2.5 went the other way.