Aarau 1-3 Etoile Carouge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 7 Apr 2026

📅07/04/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
15%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.62
6+ Goals
15%
6.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
66%
-0.4pp
19%
Draw
19%
-0.4pp
16%
Away Win
15%
+0.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 18%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
2.20/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.22
-5% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
385 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 76%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
17.1 Crosses 10.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Etoile Carouge
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.87 xG 1.21
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
319 Passes 414
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.03.2026 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 0-3 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
12.12.2025 Aarau Aarau 2-1 HT 1-1 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV2
26.09.2025 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 1-3 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
16.05.2025 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 1-3 HT 1-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
28.03.2025 Aarau Aarau 2-2 HT 1-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV2
05.12.2024 Aarau Aarau 0-1 HT 0-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSVK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
1-3
AWAY Etoile Carouge
1.98 xG 2.78
58% Ball Possession 42%
21 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 0
348 Passes 262
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 26
27 Crosses 6
5 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Etoile Carouge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Etoile Carouge got the better of Aarau 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Aarau at 66% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Aarau had 58% of the ball to Etoile Carouge's 42%, shots finished 21-14, expected goals 1.98 to 2.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Aarau and 1.00 for Etoile Carouge.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?

Aarau 1-3 Etoile Carouge in the Switzerland Challenge League on 07/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Aarau 66%, draw 19%, Etoile Carouge 16%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aarau) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aarau) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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