Aarau vs Etoile Carouge Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aarau v Etoile Carouge — Team-Based Signals
Aarau vs Etoile Carouge Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Aarau 1-3 Etoile Carouge — Actual Match Statistics
Etoile Carouge got the better of Aarau 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Aarau at 66% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.
On the day, Aarau had 58% of the ball to Etoile Carouge's 42%, shots finished 21-14, expected goals 1.98 to 2.78.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Aarau and 1.00 for Etoile Carouge.
What was the final score of Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?
Aarau 1-3 Etoile Carouge in the Switzerland Challenge League on 07/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Aarau 66%, draw 19%, Etoile Carouge 16%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aarau) went the other way.