Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 8 Aug 2026

📅08/08/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
25%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.41
6+ Goals
10%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 27% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.89
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
19%
4.96
X/2
8%
7.21
X/X
7%
4.65
2/1
10%
25.0
2/2
12%
5.19
2/X
10%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
45%
+7.0pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.9pp
25%
Away Win
28%
-3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.48/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.46
+0% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
399 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.1 Crosses 20.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.37 xG 0.88
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
360 Passes 262
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.05.2026 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-3 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
18.03.2026 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 1-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
18.10.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-2 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
02.04.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 2-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
21.03.2015 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.82 xG 1.08
6 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
313 Passes 305
9 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka squeezed past Fagiano Okayama 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cerezo Osaka as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.82 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.40 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 08/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 52%, draw 23%, Fagiano Okayama 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5
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