Rhode Island 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 10 May 2026

📅10/05/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.92
2-3 Goals
36%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.56
6+ Goals
9%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 36% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+1.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rhode Island EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 36%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.85/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.45
+81% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
16.8 Crosses 15.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rhode Island
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.74 xG 1.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
330 Passes 320
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.10.2025 Rhode Island Rhode Island 5-0 HT 3-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
18.05.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-3 HT 0-1 Rhode Island Rhode Island USLP
06.10.2024 Rhode Island Rhode Island 3-1 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
31.03.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-1 HT 0-1 Rhode Island Rhode Island USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rhode Island
1-1
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.22 xG 0.52
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
318 Passes 315
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Rhode Island vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rhode Island and Tampa Bay Rowdies couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Rhode Island at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Rhode Island had 50% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 50%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.22 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Rhode Island had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Rhode Island and 1.25 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of Rhode Island vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Rhode Island 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 10/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rhode Island vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rhode Island win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rhode Island 42%, draw 25%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Rhode Island), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rhode Island) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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