New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New Mexico United v Las Vegas Lights — Team-Based Signals
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-3
HT 1-1
Las Vegas Lights
USLP
New Mexico United 3-1 Las Vegas Lights — Actual Match Statistics
New Mexico United beat Las Vegas Lights 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%) came in.
On the day, New Mexico United had 60% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 40%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.53 to 0.86.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for New Mexico United and 1.83 for Las Vegas Lights.
What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
New Mexico United 3-1 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 10/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 53%, draw 25%, Las Vegas Lights 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.