Nancy 1-0 Chateauroux — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.0
Over 2.5
58%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.19
6+ Goals
13%
11.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.72
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
18.4
X/1
17%
3.82
X/2
7%
14.45
X/X
7%
6.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
23.3
2/2
8%
12.65
2/X
8%
21.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.3 — our 12% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-7.4pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.1pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+6.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
46%
-4.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
54%
+4.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.9pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nancy EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Chateauroux EU Bookmakers 17%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -1%
1.62/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.79
-11% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nancy
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Chateauroux
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.61 xG 0.66
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
250 Passes 307
69% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 10
12 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 3
22.11.2024 Chateauroux Chateauroux 0-2 HT 0-0 Nancy Nancy FR3
10.05.2024 Nancy Nancy 1-3 HT 0-3 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR3
12.01.2024 Chateauroux Chateauroux 0-1 HT 0-1 Nancy Nancy FR3
17.03.2023 Nancy Nancy 0-1 HT 0-1 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR3
12.10.2022 Chateauroux Chateauroux 3-1 HT 0-0 Nancy Nancy FR3
27.02.2021 Chateauroux Chateauroux 1-4 HT 0-2 Nancy Nancy FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nancy
1-0
AWAY Chateauroux
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Nancy vs Chateauroux
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nancy edged past Chateauroux 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nancy as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nancy had 58% of the ball to Chateauroux's 42%, shots finished 13-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nancy and 1.33 for Chateauroux.

What was the final score of Nancy vs Chateauroux?

Nancy 1-0 Chateauroux in the France - National League 1 on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nancy vs Chateauroux?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nancy win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Nancy 58%, draw 21%, Chateauroux 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nancy), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nancy) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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