Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities
Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics
Bayer Leverkusen shaded a tight game against Borussia Dortmund 1-0 on the road.
Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (63%) — went the other way, though.
The match data tells the story: possession split 53% to 47% in Borussia Dortmund's favour, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.30 to 0.67 — by the quality of chances, Borussia Dortmund deserved more.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.67 a game for Borussia Dortmund against 1.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Result & Final Score
Borussia Dortmund 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 47%, draw 25%, Bayer Leverkusen 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.