Gil Vicente vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Gil Vicente v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Gil Vicente vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Gil Vicente
POR
1-1
HT 1-1
Arouca
POR
Gil Vicente 1-3 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca beat Gil Vicente 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Gil Vicente at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Gil Vicente had 45% of the ball to Arouca's 55%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 0.77 to 1.32.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.67 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Arouca?
Gil Vicente 1-3 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 52%, draw 22%, Arouca 26%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.