Gil Vicente 1-3 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 May 2026

📅11/05/2026 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.4
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.27
6+ Goals
8%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 34% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.1
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.45
X/1
22%
4.13
X/2
11%
9.79
X/X
12%
5.28
2/1
9%
22.65
2/2
10%
7.83
2/X
5%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.2pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -14%
1.41/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.25
-5% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 74%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.4 Crosses 16.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Arouca
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.37 xG 1.21
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
334 Passes 347
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.12.2025 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 2-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
10.05.2025 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
27.12.2024 Arouca Arouca 1-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
26.04.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
16.12.2023 Arouca Arouca 3-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
05.02.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
1-3
AWAY Arouca
0.77 xG 1.32
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
309 Passes 378
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca beat Gil Vicente 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Gil Vicente at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 45% of the ball to Arouca's 55%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 0.77 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.67 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Arouca?

Gil Vicente 1-3 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 52%, draw 22%, Arouca 26%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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