Santa Clara 2-0 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 May 2026

📅11/05/2026 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.82
Over 2.5
39%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.7
No
57%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
3.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
3.51
6+ Goals
8%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 36% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.21
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
7%
12.05
X/1
17%
5.26
X/2
13%
6.6
X/X
14%
4.3
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
15%
4.61
2/X
5%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.0pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.5pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
51%
+9.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
49%
-9.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
55%
-11.4pp
57%
BTTS No
45%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Clara EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 33%
+14% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
1.56/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.33
+20% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
18.0 Crosses 19.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Clara
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.64 xG 1.13
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
290 Passes 250
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
11.01.2026 Nacional Nacional 3-3 HT 2-2 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
30.03.2025 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
04.11.2024 Nacional Nacional 2-0 HT 2-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
17.03.2024 Santa Clara Santa Clara 0-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR2
11.01.2024 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POK
04.11.2023 Nacional Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Clara
2-0
AWAY Nacional
1.53 xG 0.92
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
228 Passes 360
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santa Clara vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Clara saw off Nacional 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Santa Clara as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Santa Clara had 41% of the ball to Nacional's 59%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.53 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Santa Clara and 1.33 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Santa Clara vs Nacional?

Santa Clara 2-0 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Clara vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Clara win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Santa Clara 42%, draw 26%, Nacional 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Clara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santa Clara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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