Rio Ave 1-4 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 May 2026

Rio Ave
1-4 HT 1-2
Sporting CP
📅11/05/2026 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
12%
9.57
Draw
18%
6.26
Away
70%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
3.14
Over 2.5
57%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
7.32
2-3 Goals
40%
2.23
4-5 Goals
25%
2.34
6+ Goals
10%
4.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
19.7
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
19.45
1/X
5%
27.0
X/1
3%
24.8
X/2
22%
4.02
X/X
7%
10.75
2/1
4%
34.0
2/2
39%
1.32
2/X
7%
23.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.45 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
12%
Home Win
8%
+4.3pp
18%
Draw
13%
+5.2pp
70%
Away Win
79%
-9.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
28%
+14.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
72%
-14.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rio Ave v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 84%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
0.80/2.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/0.65
+36% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +7%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
269 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 464 · 87%
11.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.3
11.0 Crosses 20.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.71 xG 2.62
42% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
306 Passes 445
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 36
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.12.2025 Sporting CP Sporting CP 4-0 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
22.04.2025 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POK
03.04.2025 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 2-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POK
18.01.2025 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-3 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
09.08.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-1 HT 2-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
25.02.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 3-3 HT 2-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR

Rio Ave 1-4 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
1-4
AWAY Sporting CP
0.97 xG 1.56
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
249 Passes 485
83% Pass Accuracy 91%
31 Box Touches 40
11 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP swept aside Rio Ave 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Rio Ave had 36% of the ball to Sporting CP's 64%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 0.97 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rio Ave and 2.83 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

Rio Ave 1-4 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 12%, draw 18%, Sporting CP 70%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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