Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 May 2026

📅11/05/2026 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.71
Over 2.5
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.73
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.25
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
24%
4.05
X/2
10%
9.23
X/X
16%
4.53
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
8%
7.89
2/X
5%
16.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-2.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.7pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 23%
+5% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.57/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.40
+24% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
23.7 Crosses 16.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Casa Pia
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.14 xG 1.10
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
408 Passes 232
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 12
31 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
28.12.2025 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
01.03.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
28.09.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
24.02.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 HT 0-2 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
23.09.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
19.02.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
0-1
AWAY Casa Pia
0.94 xG 0.88
71% Ball Possession 29%
15 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
420 Passes 129
84% Pass Accuracy 62%
27 Box Touches 16
31 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia edged past Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 71% of the ball to Casa Pia's 29%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 0.94 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.50 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?

Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 52%, draw 26%, Casa Pia 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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