Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sporting Kansas City v San Jose Earthquakes — Team-Based Signals
Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
San Jose Earthquakes
ABD
Sporting Kansas City 1-3 San Jose Earthquakes — Actual Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes beat Sporting Kansas City 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had San Jose Earthquakes as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%) came in.
On the day, Sporting Kansas City had 49% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 51%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.78 to 1.71.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Kansas City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.67 for San Jose Earthquakes.
What was the final score of Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Sporting Kansas City 1-3 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Before kick-off our model rated an San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sporting Kansas City 29%, draw 18%, San Jose Earthquakes 54%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.