San Jose Earthquakes 3-5 Sporting Kansas City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 20 Apr 2025

San Jose Earthquakes
3-5 HT 2-3
Sporting Kansas City
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2025

San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.85
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.66
6+ Goals
12%
6.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.58
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
15%
5.02
X/2
15%
7.84
X/X
15%
6.06
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.65
2/2
12%
5.11
2/X
6%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.65 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.5pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

San Jose Earthquakes v Sporting Kansas City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.85/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.65
+3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
351 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 81%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
21.7 Crosses 16.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sporting Kansas City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.03
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
370 Passes 485
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2025 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 1-2 HT 1-2 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
14.07.2024 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
17.03.2024 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 2-1 HT 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
26.10.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 0-0 HT 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
27.08.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 3-0 HT 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
16.04.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 HT 2-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD

San Jose Earthquakes 3-5 Sporting Kansas City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
3-5
AWAY Sporting Kansas City
4.18 xG 1.76
67% Ball Possession 33%
22 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 0
450 Passes 172
81% Pass Accuracy 61%
46 Box Touches 19
31 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Kansas City beat San Jose Earthquakes 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was San Jose Earthquakes at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, San Jose Earthquakes had 67% of the ball to Sporting Kansas City's 33%, shots finished 22-7, expected goals 4.18 to 1.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured San Jose Earthquakes.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Kansas City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.33 for Sporting Kansas City.

What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City?

San Jose Earthquakes 3-5 Sporting Kansas City in the USA - Major League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 42%, draw 26%, Sporting Kansas City 33%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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