AZ Alkmaar II 1-4 Utrecht II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Dec 2025

📅12/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.18
2-3 Goals
37%
1.97
4-5 Goals
27%
2.59
6+ Goals
12%
6.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.62
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
5%
13.15
X/1
9%
5.1
X/2
13%
7.64
X/X
12%
6.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.35
2/2
16%
4.85
2/X
7%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-5.7pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.5pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.59/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.19
+15% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
11.4 Crosses 15.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Utrecht II
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.33 xG 1.28
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
390 Passes 304
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 21
8 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2025 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
07.03.2025 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 5-1 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
22.10.2024 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
12.02.2024 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
14.08.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-0 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
17.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-0 HT 2-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
1-4
AWAY Utrecht II
1.56 xG 2.37
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 4
482 Passes 227
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs Utrecht II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht II ran out comfortable winners over AZ Alkmaar II 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar II at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 64% of the ball to Utrecht II's 36%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.56 to 2.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 0.33 for Utrecht II.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs Utrecht II?

AZ Alkmaar II 1-4 Utrecht II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs Utrecht II?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 42%, draw 24%, Utrecht II 34%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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