MVV Maastricht 2-1 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Dec 2025

📅12/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.43
Over 2.5
63%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.49
No
38%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.02
2-3 Goals
32%
1.95
4-5 Goals
31%
2.62
6+ Goals
16%
6.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.53
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.96
X/2
9%
7.91
X/X
10%
6.27
2/1
8%
20.25
2/2
13%
5.15
2/X
7%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.1pp
37%
Under 2.5
38%
-0.9pp
63%
Over 2.5
62%
+0.9pp
62%
BTTS Yes
63%
-1.1pp
38%
BTTS No
37%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 31%
+8% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.79/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.55
+45% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
17.6 Crosses 12.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ajax II
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.17 xG 1.41
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
299 Passes 464
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.08.2025 Ajax II Ajax II 0-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
02.05.2025 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
19.08.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 0-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
12.02.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 3-0 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
01.09.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-1 HT 2-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
20.02.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 4-2 HT 2-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
2-1
AWAY Ajax II
2.23 xG 1.27
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
223 Passes 435
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht edged past Ajax II 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had MVV Maastricht as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 36% of the ball to Ajax II's 64%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 2.23 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for MVV Maastricht and 1.33 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Ajax II?

MVV Maastricht 2-1 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 45%, draw 24%, Ajax II 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MVV Maastricht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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