Connahs Quay 1-1 Cardiff MU — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
15%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.48
2-3 Goals
35%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
13%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 28% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-2.4pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.7pp
15%
Away Win
17%
-2.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.76/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.23
-14% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +53%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
423 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Cardiff MU
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
21.09.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-1 HT 1-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
06.04.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-3 HT 0-2 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
24.02.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 2-1 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
04.11.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 3-1 HT 2-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
16.09.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-0 HT 2-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Connahs Quay
1-1
AWAY Cardiff MU
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs Cardiff MU
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay and Cardiff MU shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Connahs Quay at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Connahs Quay had 59% of the ball to Cardiff MU's 41%, shots finished 12-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Connahs Quay and 1.00 for Cardiff MU.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Cardiff MU?

Connahs Quay 1-1 Cardiff MU in the Wales - Premier League on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Cardiff MU?

Before kick-off our model rated a Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 58%, draw 27%, Cardiff MU 15%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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