Ceara 2-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 14 May 2026

📅14/05/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.54
Over 2.5
46%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.99
No
47%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.9pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.1pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
61%
-7.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
39%
+7.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.4pp
47%
BTTS No
54%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.96/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/2.02
+25% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -30%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
273 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 82%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
31.4 Crosses 10.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.93 xG 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
323 Passes 414
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.04.2026 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BRK
25.10.2025 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
02.06.2025 Ceara Ceara 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
10.10.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
16.06.2022 Ceara Ceara 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
09.10.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-1 HT 2-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
2-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
2.04 xG 0.29
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
378 Passes 306
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 6
7 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara nicked a narrow win over Atletico Mineiro 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Ceara found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Ceara had 53% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 47%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 2.04 to 0.29 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ceara's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Ceara and 1.17 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Atletico Mineiro?

Ceara 2-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Cup on 14/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ceara 39%, draw 28%, Atletico Mineiro 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceara), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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