FC Kuressaare 2-1 Tallinna Kalev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.96
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
25%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.23
Over 2.5
63%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.5
No
40%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
15%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
47%
+6.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.3pp
24%
Away Win
29%
-4.3pp
37%
Under 2.5
41%
-3.6pp
63%
Over 2.5
59%
+3.6pp
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
-2.6pp
40%
BTTS No
38%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Kuressaare EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -20%
1.64/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/2.04
+2% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -29%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Kuressaare
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
10.05.2025 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-0 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
05.04.2025 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 4-1 HT 1-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
19.10.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-1 HT 1-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
09.08.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-3 HT 0-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
03.07.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 2-2 HT 2-2 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
29.03.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 3-0 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Kuressaare
2-1
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Kuressaare vs Tallinna Kalev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Kuressaare squeezed past Tallinna Kalev 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FC Kuressaare as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, FC Kuressaare had 40% of the ball to Tallinna Kalev's 60%, shots finished 12-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Kuressaare had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for FC Kuressaare and 1.17 for Tallinna Kalev.

What was the final score of FC Kuressaare vs Tallinna Kalev?

FC Kuressaare 2-1 Tallinna Kalev in the Estonia - Premium League on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Kuressaare vs Tallinna Kalev?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Kuressaare win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split FC Kuressaare 53%, draw 22%, Tallinna Kalev 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Kuressaare), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Kuressaare) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EST1 More Estonia - Premium League
14 Sep 2025
14:30 Paide Linnameeskond vs Nomme JK Kalju Analysis →
17:00 Trans Narva vs Harju Jalgpallikool Analysis →