Kilmarnock 2-3 Celtic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 15 Feb 2026

📅15/02/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.91
Draw
17%
4.62
Away
65%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.93
2-3 Goals
40%
1.95
4-5 Goals
24%
2.68
6+ Goals
12%
6.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
11.85
1/2 EV+ ✓
14%
19.95
1/X
5%
20.45
X/1
5%
14.95
X/2
19%
3.98
X/X
8%
7.56
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
32%
1.63
2/X
4%
17.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.95 — our 14% vs market 2.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
14%
+3.5pp
17%
Draw
19%
-1.4pp
65%
Away Win
67%
-2.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.3pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Celtic EU Bookmakers 71%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -26%
0.81/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.36/0.87
-13% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +5%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
223 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 435 · 83%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.1
21.2 Crosses 24.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kilmarnock
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Celtic
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
1.11 xG 2.71
27% Ball Possession 73%
9 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
140 Passes 621
63% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 40
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2025 Celtic Celtic 4-0 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
14.09.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-2 HT 0-0 Celtic Celtic İKP
12.04.2025 Celtic Celtic 5-1 HT 4-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
18.01.2025 Celtic Celtic 2-1 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKK
10.11.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-2 HT 0-1 Celtic Celtic İKP
04.08.2024 Celtic Celtic 4-0 HT 2-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kilmarnock
2-3
AWAY Celtic
0.86 xG 2.98
39% Ball Possession 61%
17 Total Shots 25
6 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 7
209 Passes 409
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 50
19 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kilmarnock vs Celtic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celtic nicked a narrow win over Kilmarnock 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Celtic as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Kilmarnock had 39% of the ball to Celtic's 61%, shots finished 17-25, expected goals 0.86 to 2.98 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Celtic's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celtic led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kilmarnock and 3.17 for Celtic.

What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Celtic?

Kilmarnock 2-3 Celtic in the Scotland - Premiership on 15/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kilmarnock vs Celtic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celtic win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 18%, draw 17%, Celtic 65%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celtic), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Celtic) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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