Lumezzane 1-0 Pro Patria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 27.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lumezzane EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Pro Patria EU Bookmakers 26%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -12%
1.04/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.12
-28% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
384 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lumezzane
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Pro Patria
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.11.2025 Pro Patria Pro Patria 1-1 HT 0-0 Lumezzane Lumezzane İTC
18.04.2025 Pro Patria Pro Patria 4-1 HT 0-0 Lumezzane Lumezzane İTC
07.12.2024 Lumezzane Lumezzane 1-1 HT 1-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
09.03.2024 Lumezzane Lumezzane 0-2 HT 0-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
03.11.2023 Pro Patria Pro Patria 0-2 HT 0-2 Lumezzane Lumezzane İTC
10.10.2015 Lumezzane Lumezzane 2-1 HT 1-1 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lumezzane
1-0
AWAY Pro Patria
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lumezzane vs Pro Patria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lumezzane edged past Pro Patria 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lumezzane as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Lumezzane had 36% of the ball to Pro Patria's 64%, shots finished 12-22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lumezzane and 1.50 for Pro Patria.

What was the final score of Lumezzane vs Pro Patria?

Lumezzane 1-0 Pro Patria in the Italy - Serie C on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lumezzane vs Pro Patria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lumezzane win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lumezzane 49%, draw 25%, Pro Patria 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lumezzane), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lumezzane) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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