Arda Kardzhali 4-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.25
Draw
16%
5.15
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.51
No
51%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
11%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
76%
-6.4pp
16%
Draw
17%
-0.8pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
36%
+13.5pp
51%
BTTS No
64%
-13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
1.74/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.38
-13% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +45%
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
530 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arda Kardzhali
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.05.2026 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 HT 0-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
30.04.2026 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 HT 1-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BULK
22.04.2026 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 0-4 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BULK
06.12.2025 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-2 HT 0-2 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
11.08.2025 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
23.11.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 4-2 HT 3-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
POST-MATCH Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arda Kardzhali ran out comfortable winners over Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arda Kardzhali as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 1.50 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Arda Kardzhali 4-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Arda Kardzhali 70%, draw 16%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 14%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arda Kardzhali), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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