IFK Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS Kuopio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 16 May 2026

IFK Mariehamn
1-1 HT 1-1
KuPS Kuopio
📅16/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2026

IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.4
Draw
30%
4.08
Away
49%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 32% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
11.25
1/2
11%
23.1
1/X
8%
19.95
X/1
9%
12.85
X/2
15%
3.76
X/X
16%
5.77
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
24%
1.78
2/X
5%
17.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
15%
+6.1pp
29%
Draw
21%
+8.4pp
49%
Away Win
64%
-14.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.9pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

IFK Mariehamn v KuPS Kuopio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 69%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
0.94/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.33/0.98
+14% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +31%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
244 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 82%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 45.0
16.8 Crosses 29.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 0.7

IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-2D-3L
AWAY KuPS Kuopio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.69 xG 2.04
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 10
250 Passes 529
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 45
15 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
18.06.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-0 HT 0-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
23.04.2025 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 4-1 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
25.08.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 3-0 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-3 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK
13.04.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 1-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
05.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK

IFK Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS Kuopio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1-1
AWAY KuPS Kuopio
0.73 xG 2.98
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 9
204 Passes 493
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
7 Box Touches 50
11 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn and KuPS Kuopio couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was KuPS Kuopio at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 34% of the ball to KuPS Kuopio's 66%, shots finished 3-24, expected goals 0.73 to 2.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 2.17 for KuPS Kuopio.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio?

IFK Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS Kuopio in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio?

Before kick-off our model rated an KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 21%, draw 29%, KuPS Kuopio 49%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✓ Under 2.5
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