HJK Helsinki 2-2 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 16 May 2026

HJK Helsinki
2-2 HT 1-1
Ilves Tampere
📅16/05/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2026

HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.64
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.33
Over 2.5
55%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.72
6+ Goals
10%
7.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.08
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.55
X/1
16%
4.42
X/2
5%
9.79
X/X
10%
6.06
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
19.9
2/2
11%
7.03
2/X
5%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.9 — our 16% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
56%
+2.9pp
19%
Draw
23%
-3.3pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
39%
+5.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
61%
-5.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

HJK Helsinki v Ilves Tampere — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -24%
1.62/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.00
-8% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 82%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
16.8 Crosses 13.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.32 xG 1.23
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
431 Passes 439
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.10.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-1 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
29.09.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-2 HT 1-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
11.08.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 5-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
05.04.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-2 HT 1-2 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
28.09.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
06.07.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-0 HT 2-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN

HJK Helsinki 2-2 Ilves Tampere — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
2-2
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.56 xG 1.10
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
583 Passes 401
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
38 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki and Ilves Tampere couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. HJK Helsinki carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 58% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 42%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.56 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for HJK Helsinki and 2.17 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere?

HJK Helsinki 2-2 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 59%, draw 19%, Ilves Tampere 21%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (HJK Helsinki) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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