Arsenal Tula 1-4 FK Rodina Moskva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
1.64
Over
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
39%
4-5
22%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
30%
Home Win
28%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-1.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.2pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Tula The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva The Market 48%
-5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +18%
1.01/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.08
-9% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal Tula
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.08.2025 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 1-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
05.10.2024 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 1-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
04.05.2024 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 1-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
05.11.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
19.10.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-2 HT 1-0 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUK
12.03.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 2-3 HT 1-2 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
POST-MATCH Arsenal Tula vs FK Rodina Moskva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Rodina Moskva cruised past Arsenal Tula 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had FK Rodina Moskva as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Rodina Moskva led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.33 for FK Rodina Moskva.

What was the final score of Arsenal Tula vs FK Rodina Moskva?

Arsenal Tula 1-4 FK Rodina Moskva in the Russia - FNL on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Tula vs FK Rodina Moskva?

Before kick-off our model rated an FK Rodina Moskva win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Tula 30%, draw 27%, FK Rodina Moskva 42%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS1 More Russia - FNL
16 May 2026
10:00 SKA Khabarovsk vs Neftekhimik Analysis →
13:00 Volga Ulyanovsk vs Fakel Analysis →
13:00 Chernomorets vs Ural Analysis →
13:00 Spartak Kostroma vs FK Ufa Analysis →
13:00 Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Analysis →
19:30 Torpedo Moscow vs Yenisey Krasnoyarsk Analysis →