Chernomorets 2-1 Ural — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.62
Over
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2-3
39%
4-5
18%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chernomorets The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ural The Market 30%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
1.36/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.57
+4% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chernomorets
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Ural
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.07.2025 Ural Ural 3-2 HT 2-1 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
16.03.2025 Ural Ural 2-1 HT 2-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
27.07.2024 Chernomorets Chernomorets 3-2 HT 3-1 Ural Ural RUS1
25.09.2019 Chernomorets Chernomorets 0-2 HT 0-0 Ural Ural RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chernomorets
2-1
AWAY Ural
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chernomorets vs Ural
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chernomorets squeezed past Ural 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Chernomorets found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chernomorets had 44% of the ball to Ural's 56%, shots finished 14-13.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ural led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chernomorets and 2.25 for Ural.

What was the final score of Chernomorets vs Ural?

Chernomorets 2-1 Ural in the Russia - FNL on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chernomorets vs Ural?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chernomorets win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chernomorets 40%, draw 26%, Ural 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chernomorets) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chernomorets) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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