Santos 3-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 16 Oct 2025

📅16/10/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.34
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
4.84
6+ Goals
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
22%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.8pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.9pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.6pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.46/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.34
+0% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
337 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 81%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
23.4 Crosses 16.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Corinthians
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.08 xG 0.96
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
299 Passes 381
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2025 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
08.02.2024 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BREPAU
30.10.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-1 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
22.06.2023 Santos Santos 0-2 HT 0-2 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
26.02.2023 Santos Santos 2-2 HT 1-1 Corinthians Corinthians BREPAU
23.10.2022 Santos Santos 0-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
3-1
AWAY Corinthians
1.83 xG 0.54
38% Ball Possession 62%
19 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
218 Passes 395
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Santos vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos saw off Corinthians 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santos had 38% of the ball to Corinthians's 62%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.83 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Santos and 1.17 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Santos vs Corinthians?

Santos 3-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 16/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Santos 45%, draw 30%, Corinthians 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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