Palmeiras 5-1 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 16 Oct 2025

📅16/10/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.45
Draw
17%
4.19
Away
12%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.03
Over 2.5
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.72
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.71
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
4%
18.25
X/1
22%
3.8
X/2
3%
14.05
X/X
9%
6.41
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.25
2/2
6%
12.1
2/X
4%
21.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
65%
+6.5pp
17%
Draw
21%
-4.0pp
12%
Away Win
15%
-2.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
45%
-2.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
55%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 18%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
1.88/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.70
+8% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -22%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
391 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 79%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
24.9 Crosses 16.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bragantino
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.61 xG 1.34
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
299 Passes 309
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2025 Bragantino 1-2 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
05.10.2024 Bragantino 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
21.06.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
02.10.2023 Bragantino 2-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
14.05.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
04.09.2022 Bragantino 2-2 HT 2-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
5-1
AWAY Bragantino
3.02 xG 1.53
62% Ball Possession 38%
26 Total Shots 6
12 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
451 Passes 256
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
42 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras cruised past Bragantino 5-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Palmeiras had 62% of the ball to Bragantino's 38%, shots finished 26-6, expected goals 3.02 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Palmeiras and 1.17 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Bragantino?

Palmeiras 5-1 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 16/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 71%, draw 17%, Bragantino 12%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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