Foggia Calcio 1-0 ACR Messina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.46
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-5.6pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.5pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+4.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Foggia Calcio EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -6%
1.48/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.70
+27% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -34%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
317 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Foggia Calcio
4W-1D-1L
AWAY ACR Messina
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.05.2025 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-0 HT 0-0 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
19.04.2025 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio 1-2 HT 1-2 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
07.12.2024 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-3 HT 0-1 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
23.03.2024 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-3 HT 0-1 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
19.11.2023 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio 2-0 HT 1-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
02.04.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-1 HT 0-1 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Foggia Calcio
1-0
AWAY ACR Messina
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Foggia Calcio vs ACR Messina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Foggia Calcio squeezed past ACR Messina 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 31% / 37% — and on the day Foggia Calcio made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Foggia Calcio had 37% of the ball to ACR Messina's 63%, shots finished 11-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Foggia Calcio had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Foggia Calcio and 0.33 for ACR Messina.

What was the final score of Foggia Calcio vs ACR Messina?

Foggia Calcio 1-0 ACR Messina in the Italy - Serie C on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Foggia Calcio vs ACR Messina?

Before kick-off our model rated an ACR Messina win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Foggia Calcio 32%, draw 31%, ACR Messina 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (ACR Messina), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ACR Messina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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