Lucchese 1-0 Sestri Levante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2.98
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.62
6+ Goals
11%
15.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.62 — our 24% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.8pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucchese EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 24%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.52/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.54
-4% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
294 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lucchese
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Sestri Levante
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2025 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 2-1 HT 2-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
23.02.2025 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 1-1 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
11.10.2024 Lucchese Lucchese 0-0 HT 0-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
14.01.2024 Lucchese Lucchese 1-3 HT 1-1 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
09.09.2023 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 0-1 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lucchese
1-0
AWAY Sestri Levante
66% Ball Possession 34%
30 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 0
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lucchese vs Sestri Levante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lucchese nicked a narrow win over Sestri Levante 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lucchese as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lucchese had 66% of the ball to Sestri Levante's 34%, shots finished 30-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sestri Levante led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Lucchese and 1.20 for Sestri Levante.

What was the final score of Lucchese vs Sestri Levante?

Lucchese 1-0 Sestri Levante in the Italy - Serie C on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucchese vs Sestri Levante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lucchese win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lucchese 45%, draw 28%, Sestri Levante 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lucchese) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lucchese) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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