Atletico Madrid 1-0 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
20%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.15
Over
57%
1.69
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
58%
1.59
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
21%
4.02
2-3
45%
1.82
4-5
26%
2.92
6+
8%
8.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
2.35
1/2
2%
34.0
1/X
5%
12.95
X/1
18%
4.57
X/2
7%
8.46
X/X
14%
5.42
2/1
4%
21.4
2/2
11%
6.1
2/X
5%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.4 — our 4% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Atletico Madrid The Market 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona The Market 28%
Great Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Weak
2.08 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.14
0.98 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.74
Strong Attack Strength Average
Great Defense Strength Weak
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
368 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 82%
24 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Girona
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.96 xG 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
430 Passes 479
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
31 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2025 Girona Girona 0-3 HT 0-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
25.05.2025 Girona Girona 0-4 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
25.08.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
13.04.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 2-1 Girona Girona İS1
03.01.2024 Girona Girona 4-3 HT 3-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
13.03.2023 Girona Girona 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
1 - 0
AWAY Girona
1.97 xG 2.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 25
4 Shots on Target 11
9 Corners 8
358 Passes 429
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
28 Box Touches 51
23 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Atletico Madrid vs Girona
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Atletico Madrid nicked a narrow win over Girona 1-0.

True to our pre-match read, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) never looked like landing.

The match data tells the story: Atletico Madrid had 47% of the ball to Girona's 53%, shots finished 17-25, expected goals 1.97 to 2.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.83 for Girona.

Atletico Madrid vs Girona Result & Final Score

Atletico Madrid 1 - 0 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Atletico Madrid vs Girona Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 56%, draw 24%, Girona 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
17 May 2026
20:00 Elche vs Getafe Analysis →
20:00 Sevilla vs Real Madrid Analysis →
20:00 Real Sociedad vs Valencia Analysis →
20:00 Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo Analysis →
20:00 Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal Analysis →
20:00 Levante vs Mallorca Analysis →