Celta Vigo II 0-1 Lugo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
3.33
6+ Goals
11%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 28% vs market 24.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.7pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.1pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo II EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugo EU Bookmakers 26%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +16%
1.72/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.10
+18% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo II
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Lugo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.10.2025 Lugo Lugo 2-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II İS3
19.03.2025 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II 1-2 HT 0-0 Lugo Lugo İS3
19.10.2024 Lugo Lugo 1-0 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II İS3
14.04.2024 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II 4-1 HT 1-1 Lugo Lugo İS3
02.01.2024 Lugo Lugo 0-1 HT 0-1 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II İS3
06.08.2017 Lugo Lugo 1-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo II
0-1
AWAY Lugo
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo II vs Lugo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo nicked a narrow win over Celta Vigo II 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Celta Vigo II at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Celta Vigo II had 59% of the ball to Lugo's 41%, shots finished 16-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Celta Vigo II and 1.17 for Lugo.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo II vs Lugo?

Celta Vigo II 0-1 Lugo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo II vs Lugo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo II win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo II 46%, draw 30%, Lugo 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Celta Vigo II), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celta Vigo II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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