Austin vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Austin v Sporting Kansas City — Team-Based Signals
Austin vs Sporting Kansas City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-1
Sporting Kansas City
ABD
4-1
HT 1-0
Austin
ABD
Austin 1-2 Sporting Kansas City — Actual Match Statistics
Sporting Kansas City squeezed past Austin 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Austin at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.
On the day, Austin had 46% of the ball to Sporting Kansas City's 54%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 0.37 to 1.52.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austin had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Austin and 1.67 for Sporting Kansas City.
What was the final score of Austin vs Sporting Kansas City?
Austin 1-2 Sporting Kansas City in the USA - Major League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Austin vs Sporting Kansas City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Austin win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Austin 55%, draw 21%, Sporting Kansas City 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Austin) went the other way.