Austin 1-2 Sporting Kansas City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.61
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.5
No
42%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.64
2-3 Goals
38%
2.02
4-5 Goals
26%
2.51
6+ Goals
13%
5.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.91
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
14.3
X/1
14%
4.39
X/2
5%
10.85
X/X
6%
7.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
18.45
2/2
14%
7.52
2/X
6%
15.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.45 — our 13% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.5pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.3pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
62%
-4.9pp
42%
BTTS No
38%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austin EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 22%
-25% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.55/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.98
-27% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
402 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
24.2 Crosses 15.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austin
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Sporting Kansas City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.21 xG 1.32
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
384 Passes 382
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.09.2025 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 1-2 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
23.02.2025 Austin Austin 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
30.06.2024 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 2-0 HT 1-0 Austin Austin ABD
19.05.2024 Austin Austin 3-2 HT 2-1 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
16.07.2023 Austin Austin 2-1 HT 2-1 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
11.06.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 4-1 HT 1-0 Austin Austin ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austin
1-2
AWAY Sporting Kansas City
0.37 xG 1.52
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
314 Passes 347
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 30
8 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Austin vs Sporting Kansas City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Kansas City squeezed past Austin 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Austin at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Austin had 46% of the ball to Sporting Kansas City's 54%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 0.37 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austin had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Austin and 1.67 for Sporting Kansas City.

What was the final score of Austin vs Sporting Kansas City?

Austin 1-2 Sporting Kansas City in the USA - Major League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austin vs Sporting Kansas City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austin win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Austin 55%, draw 21%, Sporting Kansas City 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Austin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Austin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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