Charlotte 3-1 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
28%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.18
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
10%
13.5
X/1
20%
4.39
X/2
11%
9.23
X/X
8%
5.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.0
2/2
8%
6.84
2/X
7%
14.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.0 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.9pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlotte EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.53/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.58
-16% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
408 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 81%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
17.3 Crosses 12.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlotte
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Toronto FC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.96 xG 0.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
367 Passes 398
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.07.2025 Charlotte Charlotte 2-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
01.06.2025 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-2 HT 0-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
14.04.2024 Charlotte Charlotte 3-2 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
09.03.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
05.10.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 3-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
02.04.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-2 HT 2-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlotte
3-1
AWAY Toronto FC
2.14 xG 1.20
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
370 Passes 437
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
28 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Charlotte vs Toronto FC
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Charlotte beat Toronto FC 3-1 in the USA - Major League on 17 May 2026. Half-time: 2-1.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 56% and both teams to score was close to even at 58%.

On the day, Charlotte had 46% of the ball to Toronto FC's 54%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.14 to 1.20.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Charlotte have the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Charlotte and 0.83 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of Charlotte vs Toronto FC?

Charlotte 3-1 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlotte vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charlotte win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Charlotte 53%, draw 24%, Toronto FC 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Charlotte), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Charlotte) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
17 May 2026
02:30 Orlando City vs Atlanta United Analysis →
02:30 New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Analysis →
02:30 New England Revolution vs Minnesota United Analysis →
02:30 Philadelphia Union vs Columbus Crew Analysis →
02:30 DC United vs St. Louis City Analysis →
03:30 Houston Dynamo vs Vancouver Whitecaps Analysis →